Football column

2021-22 La Liga championship predictions! Is Real Madrid the likely winner?

2021-22 ラ・リーガ優勝予想!優勝はレアルマドリードが濃厚か?

*The content includes personal and subjective opinions.
It is only a forecast and should be considered as a reference only.
(The contents are current as of March 8, 2022.)

Do you want to know who is predicted to win La Liga and wonder which team has the best chance? La Liga is now solidifying its championship lineup with 11 games remaining in the season. Therefore, in this issue, we will explain the teams predicted to win La Liga. We also predict the teams in the battle for CL rights, so please take a look.

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What is the team predicted to win La Liga?

In conclusion, the team predicted to win La Liga is Real Madrid.

As of early March, we have them in first place in the standings.

Real Madrid is probably predicted by many to be the winner of the 21-22 season.

Why Predict Real Madrid as Champion?

There are three reasons to predict Real Madrid as the winner.

The first is the current point difference: after 27 games, Real Madrid has 63 points, with Sevilla in second place with 55, an eight-point difference that can be overcome with three Real Madrid losses and three Sevilla wins. However, Real Madrid has lost only two of its 27 games. It is unlikely that that team can overturn the 8-point difference with 11 games remaining.

Second, they have the strength to win difficult games. One example is the game against Rayo on February 27. Real Madrid had 13 shots on goal compared to Rayo’s 19. However, they were able to win 1-0 thanks to a goal by FW Benzema in the 83rd minute. Being able to get three points in a match that could have been won by one point is a very important factor for winning a championship. With this strength, Real Madrid will be closer to winning the championship than other teams.

The third reason is that there are many other teams to take away. The team currently competing against Real Madrid will be Sevilla in second place. And this Sevilla is a team with many draws. They have the same number of losses as Real Madrid (2), but their draws have opened up a gap between them and the top of the table. Thus, Real Madrid is expected to win the championship if all goes well, since no other team is closing in on them.


There are two concerns that could prevent Real Madrid from winning the championship.

The first is how to play the Champions League (CL). Ancelotti is said to be a coach who does not do much turnover. Therefore, if he overworks his players when the schedule becomes difficult, it could lead to a string of injuries.

The second concern is Benzema’s injury. Benzema is the core of the current team. It is said that without Benzema, the team would change. If Benzema were to get injured due to fatigue caused by the overcrowded schedule as mentioned above, the winds of the team may change.

If the above two concerns cause the team to underperform, it is quite possible that the team could be upset in the standings.

Are there possibilities for other teams?

As of early March, many people are wondering if second-place Sevilla or third-place Barcelona have any chance of winning the championship. So here are our predictions and explanations for Sevilla’s and Barcelona’s chances of winning the championship. Let’s take a look at each of them.

Sevilla’s Chances of Winning the Championship

Sevilla still has a chance to win the championship. This is because, as mentioned earlier, they have a point difference that can be overturned if Real Madrid has a poor run of form. If they can win the head-to-head matchup with the leaders, they will be five points clear at the top. Of course, it will not be easy, but depending on Sevilla’s form, they may still be able to catch them.

Also, Sevilla’s overwhelming defensive prowess is their strength, and this season they have conceded the fewest number of goals in the league. This strength has resulted in fewer games lost. Teams with strong defenses rarely suffer major setbacks. Therefore, it is unlikely that the team will drop out of the championship lineup prematurely.

One concern, however, is the lack of scoring. As mentioned earlier, Sevilla is a team that often draws, and the reason for this is their lack of scoring. 39 goals in 27 games, the lowest number among the top 5 teams. If they continue to draw more games due to their lack of goals, their chances of winning the championship will be limited.

Chances of Barcelona winning the championship

Third-place Barcelona is not expected to win the championship. They have played one game less than the other teams, but even if they win the unplayed games, they are still 12 points behind the leader. Generally speaking, it is difficult to overturn the point difference once it exceeds the number of games remaining. Therefore, it is not very realistic to overturn the 12-point gap with 11 games remaining.

Even if Real Madrid were to collapse and overturn the point difference, Sevilla would most likely be in first place by then. Based on the above, we predict that it will be difficult for Barcelona to win the championship this season.

Prediction of teams that will be in the CL

In addition to predicting the La Liga winner, you may be wondering which team will win the CL rights. In La Liga, the teams that finish in fourth place will qualify for next season’s CL. Real Madrid and Sevilla, who are currently in first and second place, respectively, are probably the favorites to win the CL. Therefore, the remaining two slots are up for grabs among the other teams.

The three teams expected to compete for the two spots are

  • Barcelona
  • Atletico Madrid
  • Betis


Barcelona is a step ahead of the other teams in the battle for a CL spot. As mentioned earlier, a win in the remaining games would give them 51 points, three more than fourth-place Atletico Madrid.

And not only the points, but also the team’s form is on the upswing. They have won their last three league games and four straight against Napoli in the EL. A win in the head-to-head matchup with Betis would put them very close to clinching the CL title.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid is in fourth place with 48 points after 27 games, two points behind fifth place Betis. The team is also in good form, having won four of their last five games, including a head-to-head matchup with Betis. 5th-placed Betis has a less-than-perfect team situation, with two wins and three losses in their last five games. Therefore, Atletico Madrid is the second best team in the current situation.

Atletico Madrid’s main concern is the CL. The most important point for Atletico Madrid is to keep up with the league as they aim for the top spot in the CL.


Betis is in fifth place with 46 points after 27 games. As mentioned earlier, they are not in good form, having lost three of their last five games. However, they are two points behind fourth place, so they can easily overturn the deficit.

The important thing for Betis to qualify for the CL is to win their games against lower ranked teams and their head-to-head matchup with Barcelona. If Betis can beat Barcelona, the race for the CL title will become more confusing, and any of the three teams could win the title.

Also, Betis has more losses than the other teams at the top of the table. Therefore, it will be important to bring at least a draw and pick up a point.

And like Atletico Madrid, Betis still has the EL tournament to play for. Whether or not they will make it into the CL will depend on whether they prioritize the tournament or the league.

La Liga Championship Predictions Summary

How was it? Real Madrid is the most likely winner of La Liga. However, Sevilla, in second place, may have a chance to win the CL title as well.

With 11 games to go, let’s see how the race for the La Liga championship unfolds.


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